Highlights of the RBI monetary policy.
The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its benchmark policy rate at 5.25 per cent for the fourth consecutive meeting, prioritising clarity on inflation trends, particularly concerning energy costs and geopolitical developments.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged in the August monetary policy review, with economists citing elevated inflation risks and the pending closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme as key factors. Most anticipate a 'Neutral' policy stance but with a hawkish tone due to geopolitical tensions, high crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon.
The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week, influenced by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, crucial global macroeconomic data, and the escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to market analysts.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank is closely monitoring whether the supply shock from the West Asia conflict will lead to a generalised price rise, potentially necessitating monetary policy action.
The Reserve Bank of India has marginally increased its GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent while slightly lowering the inflation projection to 5 per cent. The central bank noted that while domestic economic activity shows resilience, global turbulence, particularly re-escalating conflicts and volatile oil prices, continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
Inflation to peak in the current quarter within tolerance band, moderating in the second half of next fiscal, says central bank.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its key lending rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over rising energy prices, supply disruptions from the West Asia crisis, and potential inflationary pressures.
However, since the banking system is facing tight cash conditions due to payment for spectrum for high speed telecom and broadband services and advance tax outgo, some experts are also of the view that RBI would wait for liquidity to ease before going for rate hikes.
Experts said a future rate cut would depend on the inflation.
Indian stock market benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty, saw gains in early trading, driven by anticipation surrounding the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, despite mixed global cues and significant FII outflows.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
New dates to be announced shortly, the RBI said.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth consecutive time in its October 4-6 review meeting. The incremental information available since its last meeting in August suggests that growth and inflation prints for the second quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) will exceed the committee's projections. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected to moderate in the second half (H2) of FY24.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally lower due to profit-taking, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged while lowering its growth expectations for the current fiscal year and forecasting higher inflation.
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
After four consecutive months of withdrawals, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) injected Rs 20,200 crore into Indian equities in July, driven by attractive valuations, improving corporate earnings, and a more favourable global environment.
The Reserve Bank on Tuesday said the soft monetary policy adopted by it to counter the impact of the global financial meltdown on the country will continue till the economic recovery is secured.
With inflation comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent median target and likely to undershoot its 3.7 per cent projection for 2025-26 (FY26), there is room for the monetary policy easing cycle to be sustained, the Finance Ministry said on Monday. The comments, featured in the ministry's Monthly Economic Review for June 2025, assume significance ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) scheduled to begin from August 5.
Key lending rate (repo) raised by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent; 2nd increase in 5 weeks
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday stressed that the monetary policy must remain actively disinflationary to ensure that the decline in inflation from its peak of 7.44 per cent in July continues smoothly. Addressing the Kautilya Economic Conclave 2023, he also said price stability and financial stability complement each other and it has been an endeavour at RBI to manage both efficiently. Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent annually in September on account of moderation in vegetables and fuel prices, and was back within the Reserve Bank's comfort level.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its key policy rates for the fourth consecutive time, keeping the repo rate at 5.25 per cent, while the benchmark BSE Sensex closed 152 points higher in a volatile session, recovering from an intraday dip.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced plans to launch long-lasting polymer currency notes by the next financial year. He also discussed the central bank's data-dependent approach to interest rates, its focus on aligning inflation with the 4 per cent target, and the orderly trajectory of the rupee amidst geopolitical tensions.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, saw early gains driven by lower crude oil prices and buying in Reliance Industries, even as the Reserve Bank of India maintained its benchmark policy rate for the fourth consecutive meeting, reinforcing confidence in the domestic economy.
The RBI once again said the Tata group holding company's application for deregistration as an NBFC remains under examination.
While the RBI, in the recent past, appeared keen to move to an inflation-targeting framework, industry and academia remain divided on this issue.
The RBI has already hiked interest rates 12 times since March, 2010, to control inflation, which is currently hovering near the double-digit mark.
The Lok Sabha elections in 2024 are not a consideration when it comes to monetary policymaking, said Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das to underscore the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation. "It's not possible for me to comment what we do in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee), but one thing I can tell and I would like to make it very clear-that the fact of elections coming up in 2024 is not a factor at all so far as monetary policymaking is concerned. "Monetary policymaking is for checking (and) controlling inflation," Das said at the Business Standard, BFSI Insight Summit.
Patra, as executive director of the central bank, was the principal advisor to the Monetary Policy Department since July 2012.
The highlights of the RBI's fourth monetary policy review of fiscal year 2022-23 announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
The tenure of the committee will be for two years up to June 30, 2011, the central bank said. The panel will review the monetary developments in the country keeping in mind the macroeconomic scenario and will advise the banking regulator on the stance of monetary policy due on July 28.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has picked former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, Harvard University economics Professor Raj Chetty and Microsoft XBOX CEO Asha Sharma to be part of task forces constituted to examine the central bank's approach to monetary policy and propose transformational changes.
Of the seven members, four are proposed to be government nominees and the rest from RBI.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday started discussions to firm up the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations that it might retain status quo on interest rate but change its monetary policy stance amid rising inflation on account of geopolitical developments.
